By October 27, more than 1.39 million people had already voted in Michigan. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens had endorsed Abdul El-Sayed after losing the Senate primary in August. She switched to Republican Mike Rogers on November 1, with the voting already well underway, and El-Sayed went on to win.
If a voter used Stevens' endorsement to decide how to vote early, that voter had already acted on her advice when she changed it. We do not know how many voters did that or whether they will use her recommendation again.
In her Monday statement, Stevens called it a decision of conscience. She said she felt shut out of the campaign and objected to El-Sayed's association with Hasan Piker, whose recent remarks about Jewish voters El-Sayed had condemned. Stevens hoped Rogers would act independently, despite their disagreements.
Stevens had also assured colleagues on Saturday that she would continue supporting El-Sayed, before endorsing Rogers the next morning. In the McQueen Analytics Circumplex Trust Model, that Saturday-to-Sunday change is a follow-through problem, even for a colleague who believes her explanation. Stevens needs to account for the change to the colleagues she assured and to any early voter who relied on her August recommendation.
CNN reported that Stevens and El-Sayed had not spoken directly for months, and that Democrats tried to arrange a joint appearance. Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel needs to explain how the party handled that separation after the primary. Who was responsible for hearing the concerns, and what help did the party offer to resolve the disagreement?
Democrats have also won control of Congress, according to the Associated Press's Wednesday morning calls. Counting and certification continue. Their new majorities take office in January, when Donald Trump will still be president and able to veto their bills.
what happened after earlier midterm wins
Republicans won both chambers in 1994 with the Contract with America as their agenda. Bill Clinton was still president, and the budget confrontation produced two federal shutdowns. In a November 1995 ABC News/Washington Post poll recounted by Pew, 49 percent blamed congressional Republicans for standing in the way of an agreement, compared with 34 percent who blamed Clinton.
That Congress did get welfare legislation signed after Clinton vetoed two earlier bills. At the August 1996 signing, he still objected to how deeply the final bill cut nutrition assistance.
After winning Congress in 2006, Democrats passed an Iraq funding bill with a withdrawal timetable. George W. Bush vetoed it, and the House did not have the votes to override him. The replacement dropped the timetable and became law with a phased increase in the federal minimum wage.
Democrats should seek a funding agreement that keeps government services operating while they negotiate policy changes, with a plan for continuing the work when a bill fails. If they decide a shutdown is necessary, the people whose services would stop need to know what concession the party expects to get and what it will cost them while the negotiation continues.
the ACA promise after January
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries' first-100-days agenda includes restoring the enhanced ACA premium tax credits that expired after 2025. A person buying insurance needs to know who would qualify and when the help would be available under the proposed legislation.
House passage would leave the Senate to pass the same legislation. If Trump vetoed it, an override would require two-thirds of those voting in each chamber, with a quorum present. If the override fails, Jeffries can pursue an amended bill. He should keep the original proposal available alongside any compromise so people can see what changed in the assistance or who qualifies.
If the proposal becomes law, Democrats need to work with the agencies administering it so the people who qualify can obtain the assistance. That includes making sure someone buying insurance can find out what help they can expect and where to go if they cannot get it.